CBS MidSeason Renewal Odds

Since the current tv season started, I’ve been tracking 18-49 viewer information for scripted broadcast shows. Now that most shows are off for a brief winter break, I figured now would be a good time to see how the future prospects of these shows are looking. Each show will be followed by its ratings, a brief summary, and the percentage chance the show will be back next year.

Today’s network: CBS

Shows already renewed:
Big Bang Theory

Shows already canceled:
Made in Jersey
Partners

Shows still alive:

Two and a Half Men

18-49 Avg: 3.83
11 episodes: 3.5 -> 3.6 -> 3.5 -> 4.0 -> 3.7 -> 3.6 -> 4.0 -> 4.1 -> 4.0 -> 4.0 -> 4.1
Odds for renewal: 90%

Two and a Half Men seems to have the market cornered on crazy cast members, and at some point all those headaches are going to be enough for the people behind the scenes to call it a wrap. If the ratings stay this high, it’s likely to still be a few years away.

NCIS

18-49 Avg: 3.36
10 episodes: 4.1 -> 3.7 -> 3.4 -> 3.2 -> 3.4 -> 3.1 -> 3.0 -> 3.6 -> 2.8 -> 3.3
Odds for renewal: 100%

CBS’s highest rated drama. It’ll be back.

2 Broke Girls

18-49 Avg: 3.53
12 episodes: 3.7 -> 3.5 -> 3.4 -> 3.4 -> 3.2 -> 3.2 -> 3.4 -> 4.1 -> 3.5 -> 3.7 -> 3.8 -> 3.5
Odds for renewal: 100%

There are not very many shows on broadcast anymore that can average over a 3.5 rating. 2 Broke girls will be back for at least two more seasons.

How I Met Your Mother

18-49 Avg: 3.17
11* episodes: 3.6 -> 3.3 -> 3.1 -> 3.2 -> 2.8 -> 3.0 -> 2.9 -> 3.3 -> 3.1 -> 3.2 -> 3.4
*counting the 1 hour winter finale as 1 episode
Odds for renewal: 100%

The reports are that HIMYM was just renewed for a 9th season. Jason Segel was the hold out, due to his exploding movie career. Its ratings are more than good enough to warrant another season, and it looks like it’s gonna happen.

Criminal Minds

18-49 Avg: 2.99
11 episodes: 3.1 -> 3.0 -> 3.1 -> 3.1 -> 2.9 -> 3.0 -> 3.0 -> 2.7 -> 2.9 -> 3.0 -> 3.1
Odds for renewal: 100%

CBS has so many shows that perform really well that they don’t have too many tough scheduling decisions. Criminal Minds is in that group. It will be back next year.

NCIS: LA

18-49 Avg: 2.92
10 episodes: 3.4 -> 3.1 -> 3.0 -> 2.8 -> 2.8 -> 2.8 -> 2.8 -> 2.9 -> 2.6 -> 3.0
Odds for renewal: 100%

The NCIS franchise is still going strong. NCIS: LA will be back. In fact, next year could be the first where CBS has more NCIS’s than CSI’s.

Mike & Molly

18-49 Avg: 3.05
10 episodes: 3.1 -> 2.9 -> 2.8 -> 3.0 -> 2.8 -> 3.0 -> 2.9 -> 3.6 -> 3.1 -> 3.3
Odds for renewal: 100%

For both ratings and syndication reasons, there is no possible scenario where Mike & Molly doesn’t return next year.

Person of Interest

18-49 Avg: 2.92
10 episodes: 2.9 -> 3.0 -> 2.8 -> 2.9 -> 2.9 -> 2.9 -> 3.1 -> 2.9 -> 2.9 -> 2.9
Odds for renewal: 100%

Person of Interest is a show that demonstrates the kind of advantage CBS has over the other broadcast networks. Since CBS’s current stable of shows are all consistently high rated, they can afford to give their new shows some time to find their footing and develop an audience. Person of Interest was scuffling a bit going into the winter break last year, but came back strong and has been above CBS’s average since. You can count on it being back next year.

CSI

18-49 Avg: 2.42
10 episodes: 2.5 -> 2.6 -> 2.3 -> 2.4 -> 2.4 -> 2.3 -> 2.5 -> 2.4 -> 2.6 -> 2.2
Odds for renewal: 85%

Here’s where the first drop-off for CBS shows begins. CSI is in its 13th year and on its 3rd star, so fatigue and a high production cost may cause a premature cancellation, despite its passable ratings. My guess is that since next year will include CSI’s 300th episode, it’ll get renewed so they can trumpet that milestone and pull in some additional eyeballs.

Elementary

18-49 Avg: 2.36
10 episodes: 3.1 -> 2.5 -> 2.3 -> 2.2 -> 2.4 -> 2.2 -> 2.3 -> 2.2 -> 2.1 -> 2.3
Odds for renewal: 80%

Elementary looks like it is going to be this year’s Person of Interest. The ratings are decent enough, and CBS can afford to let it play out its run before it makes a decision on its future. Spring ratings will determine Elementary’s fate, but if the ratings stay relatively flat in the 2.2-2.4 range, I think you’ll see it again next fall.

Hawaii Five-0

18-49 Avg: 2.15
11 episodes: 1.8 -> 2.1 -> 1.9 -> 2.1 -> 2.0 -> 2.1 -> 2.2 -> 2.3 -> 2.3 -> 2.5 -> 2.4
Odds for renewal: 100%

After a bit of a slow start, Hawaii Five-0’s ratings have picked up a bit of steam. It is most certainly doing well enough to get the 4th season to get it to that 88 episode mark for syndication. Guaranteed it’ll be back.

Blue Bloods

18-49 Avg: 1.4
9 episodes: 1.5 -> 1.2 -> 1.4 -> 1.3 -> 1.5 -> 1.3 -> 1.5 -> 1.5 -> 1.4
Odds for renewal: 100%

Blue Bloods is in exactly the same boat as Hawaii Five-0. It’ll have ~66 episodes at the end of this season. Its ratings are not great, but factoring in the normal decreased viewership on Friday night, it is in the same range as Hawaii Five-0. Also a guarantee it’ll be back for a 4th season to get to the syndication number.

The Mentalist

18-49 Avg: 1.76
10 episodes: 2.1 -> 1.6 -> 2.1 -> 1.5 -> 1.8 -> 1.8 -> 1.9 -> 1.4 -> 1.8 -> 1.6
Odds for renewal: 60%

Now here’s where things get interesting in the CBS ratings prediction game. CBS has historically premiered 3 new dramas every year. That means it needs to clear out 3 dramas every year. With Made in Jersey already gone and Vegas on the way out, that means CBS needs to get rid of 1 of its 3 lowest rated dramas (The Mentalist, CSI: NY, or The Good Wife). It would need to cut 2 of these if midseason drama Golden Boy is successful. Out of the three, I think The Mentalist has the best chance to stick around, because it fits the CBS crime procedural formula, but isn’t as expensive (yet) as CSI: NY. Hopefully the spring ratings will help clear the picture some.

CSI: NY

18-49 Avg: 1.39
10 episodes: 1.3 -> 1.2 -> 1.4 -> 1.2 -> 1.5 -> 1.5 -> 1.4 -> 1.4 -> 1.5 -> 1.5
Odds for renewal: 50%

The ratings are lower than The Mentalist and The Good Wife because it airs on Friday, so that is to be expected. If Golden Boy is not successful, I think CSI: NY gets one more year. Like The Mentalist, the spring ratings for CSI: NY will tell the tale.

The Good Wife

18-49 Avg: 1.74
10 episodes: 1.8 -> 1.7 -> 1.7 -> 1.9 -> 1.8 -> 1.7 -> 1.7 -> 1.7 -> 1.6 -> 1.8
Odds for renewal: 40%

Out of the three CBS dramas that are in trouble, I think The Good Wife has the worst shot at renewal. CBS has put up with its low ratings due to its critical acclaim for the 4 years necessary to sell the reruns into syndication. Along with CSI: NY and The Mentalist, the spring ratings will likely be the determining factor in which one (or two) are canned. If everything stays as it is, I believe CBS will be divorce itself from The Good Wife.

Vegas

18-49 Avg: 1.78
10 episodes: 2.5 -> 2.0 -> 2.0 -> 1.5 -> 1.7 -> 1.6 -> 1.8 -> 1.6 -> 1.5 -> 1.6
Odds for renewal: 10%

I’m disappointed in how far the ratings have slid. I love Vegas and I love period shows, so 1960’s Vegas is a winning concept to me. Apparently CBS’s core audience didn’t agree. Barring a huge ratings spike in the spring, Vegas will be done after 1 season.

CW MidSeason Renewal Odds

Since the current tv season started, I’ve been tracking 18-49 viewer information for scripted broadcast shows. Now that most shows are off for a brief winter break, I figured now would be a good time to see how the future prospects of these shows are looking. Each show will be followed by its ratings, a brief summary, and the percentage chance the show will be back next year.

Today’s network: CW

Shows in their final season:
Gossip Girl

Shows already canceled:
Emily Owens, M.D.

Shows still alive:

Vampire Diaries

18-49 Avg: 1.38
9 episodes: 1.6 -> 1.3 -> 1.3 -> 1.5 -> 1.5 -> 1.3 -> 1.4 -> 1.2 -> 1.3
Odds for renewal: 100%

The only one of the CW’s  shows that can pull in the same kind of viewership of a lower rated shows on the big 4 (ABC, NBC, CBS, and FOX) is The Vampire Diaries. This is the only show on the CW that I’ve actually watched with some regularity (SHUT UP, it was when I was staying at a ladies place, ok?) and honestly it isn’t THAT terrible. Anyways, awkward confessions aside, this is a lock to be back next season.

Arrow

18-49 Avg: 1.18
9 episodes: 1.3 -> 1.3 -> 1.1 -> 1.0 -> 1.3 -> 1.2 -> 1.3 -> 1.1 -> 1.0
Odds for renewal: 100%

Replacing the recently canceled Smallville as the superhero show of the CW, Arrow has been a ratings success for the CW. Given how tough it has been for the CW to get the same amount of eyeballs as the big 4, maybe they should start theme nights. Arrow will certainly be back next year, theme night or no.

Supernatural

18-49 Avg: 0.89
9 episodes: 0.8 -> 1.0 -> 1.0 -> 0.7 -> 0.8 -> 1.0 -> 1.0 -> 0.8 -> 0.9
Odds for renewal: 95%

So superheros and supernatural creatures are the keys to success for the CW. The rest of the shows you’ll find on this list are more traditional fare, and much lower rated. Supernatural loses a few percentage points for being by far CW’s oldest show (next year would be its 9th season), but if the ratings are the only factor, it’ll definitely be back.

Hart of Dixie

18-49 Avg: 0.56
10 episodes: 0.7 -> 0.5 -> 0.6 -> 0.5 -> 0.6 -> 0.6 -> 0.5 -> 0.5 -> 0.5 -> 0.6
Odds for renewal: 60%

Hart of Dixie’s ratings are about the same as Nikita’s and 90210’s. Being a second year show, it has a slight advantage over those other two. Although the spring ratings will tell the tale, right now it gets a slight edge for renewal.

Nikita

18-49 Avg: 0.32
6 episodes: 0.3 -> 0.2 -> 0.3 -> 0.3 -> 0.4 -> 0.4
Odds for renewal: 80%

To put how bad Nikita’s ratings are into perspective, its ratings average is lower than 1 AM reruns of Cold Case on TNT. Now you may be asking, why does it have a 75% chance of renewal? Well, it is a Friday show, so the ratings are expected (and acceptable) to be a bit lower. But the main reason is that it’s a 3rd year show, and at 67 episodes, is one season shy of syndication (88 episodes). If the ratings don’t drop any lower, it’ll be around for one last season.

Beauty and the Beast

18-49 Avg: 0.68
9 episodes: 1.2 -> 0.7 -> 0.6 -> 0.6 -> 0.7 -> 0.6 -> 0.6 -> 0.5 -> 0.6
Odds for renewal: 40%

As a first year show, Beauty and the Beast is at the mercy of the older shows with similar ratings. Unless 90210 or Hart of Dixie falls way behind the pack in the spring, it is a goner. One of those two has to be canceled to give it a chance for renewal, and even then, it is no guarantee.

90210

18-49 Avg: 0.49
9 episodes: 0.4 -> 0.6 -> 0.4 -> 0.4 -> 0.6 -> 0.4 -> 0.5 -> 0.5 -> 0.6
Odds for renewal: 50%

90210 is not going to get a full season pickup next year. It is either going to get canceled outright, or it will be renewed for a short final season, as has been recent CW tradition (see One Tree Hill and Gossip Girl). I’d say right now it is a coin toss between those two options. Spring ratings will ultimately be the deciding factor.

FOX MidSeason Renewal Odds

Since the current tv season started, I’ve been tracking 18-49 viewer information for scripted broadcast shows. Now that most shows are off for a brief winter break, I figured now would be a good time to see how the future prospects of these shows are looking. Each show will be followed by its ratings, a brief summary, and the percentage chance the show will be back next year.

Today’s network: FOX

Shows already renewed:
American Dad
Bob’s Burgers
Family Guy
The Simpsons

Shows in their final season:
Fringe

Shows already canceled:
The Mob Doctor

Shows still alive:

New Girl

18-49 Avg: 2.42
11 episodes: 2.8 -> 2.8 -> 2.8 -> 2.7 -> 2.7 -> 2.3 -> 2.2 -> 2.0 -> 2.3 -> 2.0 -> 2.0
Odds for renewal: 100%

This is FOX’s highest rated non-animated show. Zooey Deschanel doesn’t even have to ask Siri, New Girl will be back next season.

Glee

18-49 Avg: 2.34
10 episodes: 3.1 -> 2.9 -> 2.4 -> 2.6 -> 2.4 -> 2.1 -> 1.5 -> 2.2 -> 2.2 -> 2.0
Odds for renewal: 100%

If it wasn’t for that one episode that aired on Thanksgiving for some reason, Glee would be right up there with New Girl leading the pack for FOX.

Bones

18-49 Avg: 2.1
9 episodes: 2.3 -> 2.3 -> 2.1 -> 2.0 -> 2.0 -> 1.9 -> 2.0 -> 2.4 -> 1.9
Odds for renewal: 95%

The ratings along are good enough to last another year. As a show ages (Bones is in its 8th season), there’s always the slight possibility that the show ends for another reason (the stars want to move on, creator wants to end it, show becomes too expensive).

Raising Hope

18-49 Avg: 1.66
9 episodes: 1.7 -> 1.8 -> 1.7 -> 1.7 -> 1.7 -> 1.6 -> 1.5 -> 1.8 -> 1.4 -> 1.7
Odds for renewal: 100%

Raising hope will be sitting at 68 episodes, which is within a season’s reach of the magical 88 needed for syndication. Raising Hope’s production company is also 20th Century Fox TV, so there is zero chance a deal won’t be struck for a 4th season.

The Cleveland Show

18-49 Avg: 1.78
6 episodes: 2.2  -> 1.9 -> 1.6 -> 2.0 -> 1.6 -> 1.4
Odds for renewal: 70%

The lone FOX animated show whose fate is still up in the air. You’d think with the addition of Bob’s Burgers, FOX would phase out The Cleveland Show so it wouldn’t be so dependent on Seth MacFarlane. However, I think FOX likes having something to stick at 7:30 on non-football weeks to try to hook in the audience for it’s run of higher rated Sunday night comedies. As of right now, I think it’ll get at least one more (possibly shortened) season, but the ratings in the new year will likely tell the tale.

The Mindy Project

18-49 Avg: 1.65
9 episodes: 2.4 -> 1.9 -> 1.9 -> 1.5 -> 1.6 -> 1.3 -> 1.5 -> 1.3 -> 1.5
Odds for renewal: 33%

Well, Mindy Kaling’s show didn’t have the same staying power that Zooey’s did last season. Unless FOX is really willing to step out on a limb and renew something that is trending towards being even lower rated than NBC’s Community was last season, I don’t anticipate getting another year, barring some sort of ratings resurgence.

Ben and Kate

18-49 Avg: 1.39
10 episodes: 2.1 -> 1.6 -> 1.5 -> 1.2 -> 1.4 -> 1.4 -> 1.1 -> 1.1 -> 1.4 -> 1.1
Odds for renewal: 0%

In my opinion, Ben and Kate was the funniest new comedy to premiere this broadcast season, but in no way will it be sticking around for next year. Too bad. Not a good start for FOX’s new shows this season.

NBC MidSeason Renewal Odds

Since the current tv season started, I’ve been tracking 18-49 viewer information for scripted broadcast shows. Now that most shows are off for a brief winter break, I figured now would be a good time to see how the future prospects of these shows are looking. Each show will be followed by its ratings, a brief summary, and the percentage chance the show will be back next year.

Today’s network: NBC

Shows in their final season:
30 Rock
The Office

Shows already canceled:
Animal Practice
Next Caller

Shows still alive:

Revolution

18-49 Avg: 3.1
10 episodes: 4.1 -> 3.4 -> 3.2 -> 3.0 -> 3.3 -> 3.0 -> 2.9 -> 2.6 -> 2.6 -> 2.9
Odds for renewal: 99%

Revolution has been a savior for NBC’s scripted stable of shows, pulling in nearly double the ratings of any of it’s returning shows from last season.

Go On

18-49 Avg: 2.86
11 episodes: 5.6 -> 3.4 -> 3.4 -> 2.7 -> 2.1 -> 2.6 -> 2.5 -> 2.2 -> 2.1 -> 2.5 -> 2.4
Odds for renewal: 100%

After getting an early boost from a premiere aided by NBC’s Olympics coverage, Go On has held steady and further validated NBC’s decision to move away from the critically acclaimed, but low rated fare (Parks & Rec, Community, 30 Rock) and into broader, less clever shows. It will continue to go on into next season.

Grimm

18-49 Avg: 1.68
12 episodes: 2.0 -> 1.7 -> 1.6 -> 1.5 -> 1.6 -> 1.6 -> 1.6 -> 1.5 -> 2.0 -> 1.8 -> 1.7 -> 1.6
Odds for renewal: 100%

Airing on the traditionally grimly rated Friday nights, Grimm has been grabbing great ratings for an NBC show, not just great ratings for a Friday show.

Parenthood

18-49 Avg: 1.84
11 episodes: 1.9 -> 1.8 -> 1.8 -> 1.6 -> 2.0 -> 1.9 -> 1.9 -> 1.7 -> 1.8 -> 1.8 -> 2.0
Odds for renewal: 100%

Not only is it a strong performer for NBC, but it will also have ~68 episodes at the end of this season. That puts it within one traditional season of getting it to the magic 88 episodes needed for selling it into syndication.

The New Normal

18-49 Avg: 1.95
11 episodes: 2.5 -> 2.5 -> 2.2 -> 2.0 -> 1.7 -> 2.0 -> 1.8 -> 1.8 -> 1.5 -> 1.7 -> 1.7
Odds for renewal: 90%

Another of the new breed of NBC comedies following the Go On model, it seems The New Normal has found itself a prime player in NBC’s new Tuesday night comedy block that is destined to replace the Must See comedies of Thursday nights of yore.

Law & Order: SVU

18-49 Avg: 1.71
8* episodes: 2.1 -> 1.8 -> 1.6 -> 1.9 -> 1.7 -> 1.7 -> 1.3 -> 1.6 *counting the 2 hour premiere as 1 episode
Odds for renewal: 80%

This is by far NBC’s longest running show, and isn’t getting any cheaper to make. The ratings are good enough for NBC to likely want to order at least one more year.

Chicago Fire

18-49 Avg: 1.7
9 episodes: 1.9 -> 1.5 -> 1.8 -> 1.6 -> 2.2 -> 1.6 -> 1.4 -> 1.9 -> 1.4
Odds for renewal: 75%

Chicago Fire has had the most uneven ratings of any broadcast show so far this season. There has been six swings of .3 points or more in 9 episodes. The ratings average is high enough to warrant a renewal, but hopefully viewership numbers will even out by the end of the broadcast season to make a final prediction easier.

1600 Penn

18-49 Avg: 2.3
1 episode: 2.3
Odds for renewal: 50%

There isn’t enough data yet to make an actual prediction. If the ratings of the premiere continue to be consistent, 1600 Penn will be renewed. However, that is unusual. Let’s wait and see.

Parks and Recreation

18-49 Avg: 1.64
9 episodes: 1.7 -> 1.6 -> 1.9 -> 1.6 -> 1.7 -> 1.7 -> 1.7 -> 1.4 -> 1.5
Odds for renewal: 45%

Oh, Parks & Rec. It’s ratings put it just above the borderline for a renewal. That’s good. After this season it will be at 90 episodes, so the drive to extend it one more season to reach the syndication number is not there. That’s bad. The show is produced in house (Universal). That’s good. NBC execs have made it abundantly clear that they want to move on from low-rated critical comedies towards broader humor. That’s bad. My gut says that it’s not gonna be back next year. But if the ratings this spring are good enough, that could change. I’m just gonna enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Up All Night

18-49 Avg: 1.24
11 episodes: 1.3 -> 1.4 -> 1.4 -> 1.1 -> 1.3 -> 1.4 -> 1.3 -> 1.2 -> 1.2 -> 0.9 -> 1.1
Odds for renewal: 20%

In a desperate bid to stay alive, Up All Night is taking an extended hiatus to move from its current single camera setup, to an old-school multi-camera show. There’s a slim chance the revamp could boost ratings, but is very unlikely. I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it.

Guys With Kids

18-49 Avg: 1.47
10 episodes: 2.2 -> 1.6 -> 1.6 -> 1.4 -> 1.4 -> 1.4 -> 1.3 -> 1.3 -> 1.1 -> 1.4
Odds for renewal: 15%

I thought Guys With Kids was the worst new show of the season, but is still hanging on NBC’s schedule. There likely aren’t enough viewers to drag it kicking and screaming into the next broadcast season.

Whitney

18-49 Avg: 1.3
4 episodes: 1.4 -> 1.1 -> 1.3 -> 1.4
Odds for renewal: 10%

I am still curious as to why this was renewed last year. I’d like to say NBC won’t make that same mistake twice, but this is NBC we’re talking about.